Grocery prices are the inflation statistic everyone touches daily. Here’s what happened to the cart, category by category.
The headline numbers (BLS CPI data)
| Measure | Approximate figure |
|---|---|
| Grocery inflation, 2020–2024 cumulative | ~+25% (CPI food-at-home index) |
| Peak annual grocery inflation (2022) | ~11–13% — a 40+ year high |
| Egg price spike (peak 2022–23, avian flu) | Peak increases of ~60–70% year-over-year |
| Recent annual pace (2024–25) | ~1–2% — back to normal-ish |
What the data shows
- Prices ratcheted, not recoiled: the post-2022 "cooling" means slower increases, not falling prices — the grocery cart’s new level is permanent absent deflation, which food almost never has.
- Category spread is wide: eggs and poultry whipsawed on avian flu; beef climbed on herd cycles; fresh produce is seasonal and volatile; packaged foods rose early and quietly.
- Wages partially caught up: for the median worker, cumulative wage growth since 2020 roughly matched grocery inflation — meaningfully better than 2022's low point, unevenly distributed across income levels.
Primary sources: the BLS Consumer Price Index detailed tables (food at home, by category), USDA ERS Food Price Outlook (forecasts), and the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis FRED database for the series history. Track "food at home" (groceries) separately from "food away from home" (restaurants) — they tell different stories.