The most repeated marriage statistic in America — "50% end in divorce" — is a fossil. Here’s what current data shows.
The headline numbers (CDC/NCHS and Census, 2022–2024)
| Measure | Approximate figure |
|---|---|
| Marriage rate | ~6 per 1,000 people/year (historic low, recovering post-2020) |
| Divorce rate | ~2.4 per 1,000 people/year (40-year low) |
| Median age at first marriage | ~30 (men), ~28 (women) — record highs |
| Share of adults currently married | ~47–50% (down from ~72% in 1960) |
Why "50%" is wrong today
The half-of-marriages figure came from a crude projection: annual divorces divided by annual marriages in a year (early 1970s–80s) when divorces spiked. Modern cohort studies — following actual marriages over time — put lifetime divorce probability at roughly 40–45% overall, and materially lower for marriages formed this century, for reasons researchers attribute to later marriage ages, fewer total marriages (skipping the riskiest ones), and shifting economics.
Who divorces: the consistent findings
- Age at marriage is the strongest predictor: marrying in the early 20s carries meaningfully higher risk than late 20s.
- Income and education correlate inversely with divorce in the data.
- Second marriages carry higher risk than first marriages in most datasets.
Primary sources: NCHS marriage and divorce tables, the Census Bureau’s SIPP marital-history data, and the American Community Survey. Use the rate per 1,000 — never the meme.